Fantasy stud, dud and pickup

The No. 1 factor to fantasy success? It’s probably luck. If not, it’s being alert.

My defense of a championship in one highly competitive league I’m part of got off to a miserable start. Aaron Rodgers struggled. Eddie Lacy did nothing. Ben Tate was injured. So was Jordan Cameron. Zach Ertz fizzled. It goes on and on from there.

How bad was the first month? Try an 0-4 record and the low point total in the league. But, following the third week, fortunes began to change even if it didn’t show up in the win column in Week 4.

That’s when some poor sap of an owner cut T.Y. Hilton. Yep, the same Hilton who went for 1,000-plus yards in his second season and caught seven touchdowns as a rookie. Sure, Hilton hadn’t scored a touchdown, but had this owner watched the Colts? Andrew Luck throws it 40 times per game, if not more. Hilton’s too good to cut.

Yet, there he was. The Florida International product sitting on the waiver wire.

Surely, with the eighth waiver pick in a 12-team league, there was no way my sorry, winless bunch would get Hilton. No matter. I made the waiver claim. To my surprise, he landed on my roster and was quickly inserted into my starting lineup.

My team nearly won Week 4 with Hilton in. Finally, Revis Christ broke through the win column in Week 5 and, this Thursday, Hilton put together a game to remember – 9 catches, 223 yards (one shy of a team record) and his first touchdown of the season. His 39.3 points certainly gives me a chance to get to 2-4.

One game at a time.

Why tell the story? Well, for one, it’s not wise to give up on Pro Bowl-caliber talent. Two, fantasy leagues aren’t won in September.

Stud – Branden Oliver, San Diego. Chances are most owners in your league didn’t know who Oliver was before he gashed the Jets’ tough run defense for 119 yards and was a key figure in the passing game. Chances are he’s no longer available in your league. San Diego is physically imposing and the best team I’ve seen to date this season. Oakland stinks and the Chargers are riddled with injures in the backfield.

Dud – Terrance Williams, Dallas. Williams is a touchdown machine and a big reason why the Cowboys are the surprise of the NFC. The problem? Well he’s produced an awfully high percentage of touchdowns on a low number of targets. Against Seattle this week, expect Williams’ touchdown streak to stop and his low number of targets to continue.

Pickup – Brian Quick, St. Louis. Quick has quietly and consistently produced top 15 numbers at the position. He’s had nine targets in three of four games, and already has career highs in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. Sure, the Rams have an unproven quarterback in Austin Davis and a tough opponent in San Francisco, but Quick is a must own.

Last week, Eli Manning was the choice for stud and he finished with 200 yards and two touchdowns. Hardly, studly numbers but enough to get a win if you started the right people. Larry Fitzgerald finished with three catches for 57 yards and no touchdowns, a worthy dud selection. No touchdowns for Fitz through four games. Travis Kelce was the suggested pickup and the big tight end found the end zone last week.

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